DataGreat, a platform specializing in tourism intelligence, has unveiled a scenario analysis focusing on potential disruptions in Russian outbound tourism and their impact on travel patterns in Europe and the eastern Mediterranean. Utilizing their Crisis Impact Simulator and building on data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025, the analysis explores how a renewed shock could alter these patterns.
The initial disruption to Russian outbound tourism emerged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This event prompted sanctions, airspace restrictions, and disruptions in payment systems, causing a significant redirection of Russian leisure travelers away from EU destinations. Consequently, countries like Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt have accommodated the influx of these travelers. Meanwhile, EU regions previously popular with Russian tourists experienced declines exceeding seventy percent since 2022.
The new analysis envisions a scenario where remaining exposure is eliminated in a second wave, potentially fueled by intensified sanctions, further payment-system limitations, depreciation of the ruble, or additional closures of indirect travel routes. The Crisis Impact Simulator models a potential twenty to thirty-five percent decline in Russian outbound travel to specific destinations over a year. It assesses three exposure categories: EU destinations with lingering Russian tourist presence, Mediterranean regions reliant on package holidays and charters, and markets like Türkiye, which may need to compensate for reduced Russian arrivals by tapping into alternative source markets.
The simulator identifies the most vulnerable sectors, highlighting charter-dependent package operators, coastal resorts operating outside peak seasons, and destination management companies with a significant Russian-language clientele. The vulnerability is calculated using inbound share data, with an AI layer providing narrative context for the figures. Mitigation strategies suggested by the simulator include diversifying source markets towards countries like those in the Gulf Cooperation Council and India, repositioning products towards European markets by adapting all-inclusive offers, and implementing currency-hedging strategies for businesses with substantial ruble-based transactions.
Complementing this analysis is DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 destinations weekly across six tourism risk categories, including source-market concentration. Together, these tools allow for a detailed understanding of exposure levels and the potential impact of specific shocks on different tourism segments. DataGreat plans to release detailed destination-specific insights from the simulator progressively through 2026, with credentialed media able to request the complete output for any covered destinations. Headquartered in Edirne, Türkiye, DataGreat is operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., extending its expertise over 42 countries and 26,880 verified data points.
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